Trend Analysis

SMG / Agriculture

Options Details (2M ATM Call)

Entry Premium$7.05
Risk/Reward Ratio0.46
Max Profit$327.50
Max Loss$705.00

Strategy details

SummaryBREAKOUT BULLISH
StatusACTIVE_LATE
DirectionBULLISH
Profit Trigger58.21
Profit target64.48
Invalidation47

Metadata

Last Price57.93
TickerSMG
MarketAgriculture

Disclaimer: Displayed positions reflect hypothetical model behaviour for research and educational purposes only and do not constitute instructions or recommendations. Any use of this information is at the reader's own discretion and risk.

Position summary

SymbolSMG
Position-3
Avg cost4.43
Mark5.76
Unrealized P&L-398.0507
SymbolSMG
Position-3
Avg cost4.77
Mark5.23
Unrealized P&L-139.0507

Price action

1741 bars

Swipe to view historical data

Analysis Summary

The model identifies SMG (Agriculture) as displaying a bullish breakout configuration with a model position, currently classified at active-late stage. This classification is based on the model's interpretation of EMA trend structure and Fibonacci execution levels.

Based on delayed data, the model reads the underlying at $57.93, placing it at the 23.0% level in the distribution (0.000-0.236) zone (model range: $47.00 to $94.50), The model's Fibonacci execution zone spans $47.00 to $58.21, with the entry midpoint at $52.61., The EMA structure shows bullish alignment (EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA100) (20-period: $58.16, 50-period: $57.62, 100-period: $56.92), which the model interprets as bullish trend structure.

Model position (hypothetical): Short 3 contracts of the Mar 20, 2026 $55 call. Model entry premium: $4.43 per contract (hypothetical risk per strategy model). Model marks at $5.76 with a hypothetical unrealized -$398.05 (29.9%).

The model classifies this setup at late-stage status approaching the model's target zone near $64.48. This indicates the model interprets market pricing as having caught up (premium ratio > 0.35 per strategy model), and the model is evaluating mechanical exit conditions including profit-taking at the defined Fibonacci target.

Model invalidation would occur if price breaks below $47.00, which the model would interpret as the breakout having failed. Per the model's strategy rules, exit logic includes both invalidation-based exits and time-based exits (if price fails to reach the halfway point within the defined bar window). The call premium represents the model's total hypothetical maximum risk.