The model identifies PSX (Crude Oil) as displaying a bearish breakout configuration, currently classified at active-early stage. This classification is based on the model's interpretation of EMA trend structure and Fibonacci execution levels.
Based on delayed data, the model reads the underlying at $127.67, placing it at the 45.2% level in the upper retracement (0.236-0.500) zone (model range: $90.00 to $173.32), The model's Fibonacci execution zone spans $109.66 to $131.66, with the entry midpoint at $120.66., The EMA structure shows bearish alignment (EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100) (20-period: $129.33, 50-period: $132.19, 100-period: $134.23), which the model interprets as bearish trend structure.
The model classifies this setup at the early stage of its progression toward the model's Fibonacci midpoint target of $99.83. The model identifies this as a potential entry opportunity as price advances through the model's anticipated path. Status ACTIVE_EARLY indicates the model interprets convexity as remaining cheap (premium ratio 0.20-0.35), though less optimal than WAITING. The model evaluates both momentum continuation and the halfway exit rule (must reach 50% of upside within 6-8 bars on 4H timeframe).
Model invalidation would occur if price rallies above $131.66, which the model would interpret as the breakout having failed. Per the model's strategy rules, exit logic includes both invalidation-based exits and time-based exits (if price fails to reach the halfway point within the defined bar window). The call premium represents the model's total hypothetical maximum risk.
The model notes price is trading -3.03% above the model's invalidation level, suggesting limited margin for error if momentum stalls.