Trend Analysis

APA / Crude Oil

Options Details (2M ATM Call)

Entry Premium
Risk/Reward Ratio
Max Profit
Max Loss

Strategy details

SummaryBREAKOUT BEARISH
Status
DirectionBEARISH
Profit Trigger18.92
Profit target16.12
Invalidation25.16

Metadata

Last Price24.47
TickerAPA
MarketCrude Oil

Disclaimer: Displayed positions reflect hypothetical model behaviour for research and educational purposes only and do not constitute instructions or recommendations. Any use of this information is at the reader's own discretion and risk.

Position summary

SymbolAPA
Position1
Avg cost2.45
Mark2.44
Unrealized P&L-0.7641

Price action

2076 bars

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Analysis Summary

The model shows a position in APA (Crude Oil), but no active signal is currently identified. Underlying price data could not be resolved by the model. The model continues to monitor for new entry conditions or exit signals.

Based on delayed data, the model reads the underlying at $24.47, placing it at the 47.1% level in the upper retracement (0.236-0.500) zone (model range: $13.33 to $37.00), The model's Fibonacci execution zone spans $18.92 to $25.16, with the entry midpoint at $22.04., The EMA structure shows bearish alignment (EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100) (20-period: $24.32, 50-period: $24.63, 100-period: $24.79), which the model interprets as bearish trend structure.

Model position (hypothetical): Long 1 contract of the Mar 20, 2026 $25 put. Model entry premium: $2.45 per contract (hypothetical risk per strategy model). Model marks at $2.44 with a hypothetical unrealized -$0.76 (-0.3%).

While a model position exists, the underlying spot price could not be resolved by the model from market data sources This could indicate the model detects that EMA structure has shifted, the Fibonacci execution geometry is no longer valid, or option pricing no longer meets the model's convexity requirements.

The model continues to monitor EMA trend structure (the sole source of strategy selection per strategy.md), Fibonacci execution zones (providing trigger and target levels), and option convexity pricing (determining entry timing). A new signal will be identified by the model when trend structure, execution geometry, and cheap convexity converge.

The model notes price is trading -2.74% above the model's invalidation level, suggesting limited margin for error if momentum stalls.